A recent study titled The momentum of the solar energy transition by a British team of scientists finds that past forecasting models have consistently underestimated how rapidly the share of renewables, and solar power in particular, would increase in the global energy mix.

Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness has been improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. 

Using data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting, the authors suggest that we have passed a global irreversible solar tipping point and as a result, solar energy is already on track toward dominating global electricity markets.

Market shares of renewable energy technologies as forecasted by a global, data-driven energy-technology-economy simulation model (E3ME-FTT). Source: nature.com

Renewables have historically been considered expensive, their deployment requiring subsidies or carbon taxes. However, due to a mix of innovation and past climate policy, renewables have become cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of solar photovoltaics (PV) fell by 15% each year as the installed capacity has been rising by 25% per year. In a positive feedback loop, falling prices have increased demand, which led to further cost reductions. 

In 2020, fossil fuels produced 62% of all electricity. According to latest modeling, this percentage decreases to 21% in 2050, with solar PV responsible for more than half of global energy production. Source: nature.com, graphic by Bloomberg.

The article also discusses barriers to rapid further adoption of solar and wind energy. The first barrier is grid resilience.

Batteries are specifically called out as playing an important role in mitigating this issue and showing a similarly high learning rate as solar PV. 

Looking back at solar PV’s remarkable history of cost reduction and increasing demand over the past decade, the article concludes that electricity storage costs and technology adoption could follow a comparable trajectory in the years ahead, coupled to the continued triumph of solar power.