My name is David Fillmore. I am the programmer of the PowerBloc’s Energy Management System, EDISON™. I developed YouSolar’s real-time solar energy forecast, SPOT™.

I am also a programmer who works on NASA’s CERES mission. CERES stands for Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System. CERES measures with high accuracy the amount of net energy retained by Earth from Earth-orbiting satellites. We call it the Planetary Heat Uptake.

As the graph below shows, Earth has retained about 15 x 10^22 or 150 zeta Joules of heat between 2000 and 2017 alone. The scientific confidence in this estimate continues to improve over time, and today there is broad acceptance amongst climate scientists of these fundamental measurements.

150 zeta Joules is equivalent to the energy of 833 million Hiroshima atomic bombs. 93% of the energy has been absorbed by Oceans.

If Earth were as simple as a bathtub with some rocks, the water, rocks, and bathroom air would heat steadily. But Earth experiences the cyclical ocean currents El Niño and La Niña, solar cycles, volcanic eruptions (recently Hunga Tonga), and cargo ships.

The graph below shows the contribution of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and four other factors affecting global temperature.

As you can see, El Niño/La Niña warm and cool the planet. So do the solar cycles. Volcanic eruptions spew gasses and dust into the atmosphere. Depending on what types of gas and ash, how much material was ejected, and how high, volcanoes can temporarily cool or warm Earth. Hunga Tonga is likely heating Earth. But we do not know for sure because we still need to measure the type and distribution of the gasses it emitted.

Source: Berkeley Earth

The shipping industry cleaned up its act and took sulfur out of fuel oil. While that is good otherwise, sulfur dioxide aerosols are pretty good at reflecting sunlight. With less of it in the air, more sunlight reaches the ground.

Understanding the magnitude and drivers of climate change is not difficult. Taking accurate measurements and building accurate climate models takes more effort. We do it well.

But accepting the data and taking personal and societal action is seemingly impossible.

Every article like this usually ends with a hopeful statement like this one from a recent New Times article, “I Study Climate Change. The Data Is Telling Us Something New.”

“Despite the recent acceleration of warming, humans remain firmly in the driver’s seat, and the future of our climate is still up to us to decide.”

I study climate too, I watch my neighbors and the news. I must disagree. My closing thought is this:

“Recent acceleration of warming shows that we have lost complete control over the climate freight train, and global heating is going to decide our future.”